Bihar Assembly Election 2025: Exit Polls, Voter Turnout, and Political Analysis

Introduction

The Bihar Election 2025 has become a political milestone in India’s electoral calendar. Spread over two phases — November 6 and 11 — the election saw record-breaking voter participation, intense rallies, and fierce competition between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance).

As the state awaits counting day on November 14, 2025, exit polls have projected a decisive edge for the NDA, while opposition parties have questioned the surveys’ accuracy.

1. Background of Bihar Politics

Bihar’s politics has always played a pivotal role in shaping national trends. Known for its complex caste equations, youth-driven population, and shifting alliances, the state is often called India’s “political laboratory.”

The 2025 assembly election is crucial for several reasons:

• It’s the first major state election after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
• Nitish Kumar’s leadership and alliance strategy were under scrutiny.
• The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan tried to regain power under Tejashwi Yadav.
• Political observers called it a “semi-final” for the 2029 general elections.

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2. Voting Phases and Turnout

According to the Election Commission of India, polling was conducted in two phases for all 243 assembly seats.

Phase	Date	Seats	Voter Turnout
Phase 1	6 November 2025	121 Seats	64.7 %
Phase 2	11 November 2025	122 Seats	68.79 %

The overall turnout crossed 66.9 %, the highest in Bihar electoral history. Women voters participated enthusiastically, surpassing male turnout in several districts.

This high participation indicates an engaged electorate and a possible desire for policy-based stability.

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3. Key Contenders and Alliances

National Democratic Alliance (NDA)

The ruling coalition comprises the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United). Nitish Kumar remains the chief ministerial face, supported by BJP’s strong organizational base. The NDA’s campaign revolved around:

• “Development with Stability”
• Job creation and infrastructure projects
• Women’s empowerment and welfare schemes

Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance)

The opposition alliance includes Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress, and Left parties.
Tejashwi Yadav projected himself as a young alternative leader, focusing on:

• Employment for youth
• Anti-corruption stand
• “Bihar Bachao” campaign slogan

Jan Suraaj Party (JSP)

Founded by political strategist Prashant Kishor, JSP contested independently with a message of “clean politics.” Despite drawing media attention, exit polls suggest limited electoral success.

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4. Exit Poll Results 2025

After the final phase concluded on November 11, multiple media agencies released their exit poll predictions.

Agency	NDA (BJP + JDU)	Mahagathbandhan (RJD + INC + Left)	Jan Suraaj Party	Others
Dainik Bhaskar	145 – 160	73 – 91	0 – 3	3 – 5
Matrize Poll	147 – 167	65 – 85	1 – 2	2 – 4
India Today – Axis My India	140 – 155	75 – 95	0 – 2	2 – 4
Times Now – ETG	132 – 150	85 – 100	0 – 5	3 – 6
ABP News – C-Voter	130 – 160	80 – 100	0 – 3	2 – 4

Exit Poll Summary

• All major agencies predict NDA’s majority, estimating 130 – 167 seats.
• The Mahagathbandhan is projected between 65 – 100 seats.
• Smaller parties like JSP may win a few seats, but not enough to impact government formation.

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5. Major Election Issues

Bihar’s campaign centered around both local and national themes:

• Employment and Migration:
  Job creation was a dominant issue, especially among youth and migrant workers.
• Development vs. Governance Fatigue:
  NDA emphasized its 18 years of governance and infrastructure expansion, while opposition blamed it for “stagnation and corruption.”
• Caste and Social Balance:
  Both alliances strategically fielded candidates based on caste arithmetic.
• Women Empowerment:
  Women’s participation in Self-Help Groups and welfare schemes became a talking point.
• Law and Order:
  NDA highlighted better policing; the opposition raised crime incidents as proof of weak administration.

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6. Campaign Highlights of Bihar election

The Bihar election saw some of the largest rallies of 2025.

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed multiple rallies backing the NDA.
• Nitish Kumar conducted door-to-door outreach programs.
• Tejashwi Yadav attracted crowds with his “Rozgaar Yatra.”
• Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj campaign focused on “Nayi Soch, Naya Bihar.”

Social media played a big role, especially among first-time voters. Hashtags like #BiharVotes and #NDAAgain trended throughout polling week.

7. Analysis of Exit Poll Trends

Why NDA Leads

1. Stable leadership and alliance unity.
2. Women-centric welfare schemes such as free gas connections, cash transfers, and education programs.
3. Organizational strength of BJP, ensuring deep voter mobilization.
4. Fragmented opposition votes between RJD, Congress, Left, and JSP.

Challenges Ahead for NDA

• Delivering on job promises.
• Balancing internal leadership tensions.
• Addressing rural economic distress post-pandemic slowdown.

For the Opposition

The Grand Alliance must revisit its strategy. Although Tejashwi Yadav’s image improved, lack of coordination and candidate selection issues weakened its impact.

8. Voter Demographics and Behavior

Youth Vote

Nearly 40 % of Bihar’s population is below 30 years. Exit polls suggest a split youth vote, with urban youth leaning toward NDA’s development agenda and rural youth showing sympathy for RJD’s employment promise.

Women Voters

Female turnout exceeded 70 % in some constituencies. Analysts credit Nitish Kumar’s long-term focus on women’s welfare for this shift.

Caste Dynamics

Bihar’s politics remains deeply rooted in caste affiliations:

• EBCs & OBCs largely backed NDA.
• Yadav & Muslim voters consolidated behind RJD.
• Upper Castes largely voted for BJP.

9. Counting Day and What Lies Ahead

Vote counting is scheduled for November 14, 2025, with live updates expected from the Election Commission by morning.

Key aspects to watch:

• Can NDA maintain its projected majority?
• Will smaller players cause upsets in regional pockets?
• How accurate are exit polls this time compared to 2015 and 2020 (where polls underestimated RJD gains)?

Regardless of the final tally, Bihar’s 2025 election underscores the vibrancy of Indian democracy — where every few years, voters reshape the political map through peaceful participation.

10. Historical Context of Bihar election

Previous Bihar Elections: Seat Comparison

Year	NDA Seats	Mahagathbandhan Seats	Turnout (%)
2015	58	178	56.8
2020	125	110	58.2
2025 (Exit Polls)	130 – 167 (Projected)	65 – 100 (Projected)	66.9

The data shows that NDA has regained its momentum since 2020, while Maha gathbandhan base has slightly eroded.

11. Expert Opinions

Political experts note three key takeaways:

1. High turnout favors incumbency when satisfaction is moderate.
2. Fragmented opposition benefited NDA.
3. Women voters may have played a decisive role.

12. Conclusion

The Bihar Election 2025 is not just a regional contest but a reflection of evolving Indian politics. Exit polls indicate that Nitish Kumar’s NDA is poised for a comfortable win, but final results will determine if the alliance sustains its hold or faces a surprising swing.

Disclaimer

The information in this report is based on publicly available exit polls and Election Commission data as of November 2025. Actual results may differ. TrendingAdda.in assumes no responsibility for discrepancies or changes after publication.